Key Points
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Rigetti’s valuation looks disconnected from its fundamentals, with just about $7 million in annual revenue, shrinking sales, and a market capitalization worth billions.
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Ongoing share dilution is a major risk, as the company continues issuing new stock through its ATM program while also expanding its share count via government-backed funding.
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Quantum computing has enormous long-term potential, but Rigetti’s stock already prices in years of future success, leaving little room for disappointment if investor enthusiasm fades.
- 10 stocks we like better than Rigetti Computing ›
Quantum computing has been one of the hottest corners of the market, and the enthusiasm has lifted almost every name in the group. But not all of these companies have the business to back up their share prices, and one in particular looks stretched heading into the back half of 2026: Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI).
Here is the uncomfortable part with Rigetti. Rigetti reported full-year 2025 revenue of about $7 million, down 34% from the year before. A company whose sales are shrinking still has a market value in the billions, which translates to a price-to-sales ratio in the hundreds. For comparison, most established technology companies trade in the single digits or low teens on that measure. Investors are paying for a future that the current business has not started to deliver.
Rigetti keeps selling stock into the rally
The bigger near-term risk with Rigetti is dilution. Rigetti runs an at-the-market equity program, which lets it sell new shares directly into the open market whenever the price rises, and it has already raised roughly $100 million this way. On top of that, the company accepted about $100 million in federal quantum funding in 2026 that came with the U.S. government taking an equity stake. Both moves strengthen the balance sheet, but they also expand the share count, and more shares outstanding tend to weigh on the price over time.
The bull case, and why the timing matters
To be fair, Rigetti builds real superconducting quantum chips. Its modular chip design has a credible roadmap, and the government funding is a form of validation that most start-ups never receive. The cash cushion means it will not run out of money soon. If a technical milestone lands or quantum excitement flares again, this volatile stock can spike hard — it has done so before.
The issue is not whether quantum computing matters. It is that Rigetti’s stock price already assumes a level of success that its roughly $7 million in shrinking revenue does not support, while the company keeps issuing shares. That combination, a stretched multiple, falling sales, and steady dilution, is the kind of setup that can crack when hype cools.
For context, peers IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) carry similar valuation risks, though IonQ at least has growing revenue. Anyone tempted by Rigetti here should keep any position small and treat a sharp second-half pullback as a real possibility.
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Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
