Key Points
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), commonly known as SpaceX, opened at $150 on its first day of trading following its IPO. Had you invested $1,000 then, you’d have approximately $1,080 right now. No, that’s not very impressive.
But have some perspective! That’s an 8% gain in a few weeks. Plus, SpaceX stock rocketed to a high of $225 before pulling back, so you’d have made a much larger profit if you sold closer to the top.
But the real question moving forward is whether the stock will recapture that upward momentum anytime soon. Nobody can know for sure, but investors are probably best to consider SpaceX a long-term investment rather than a get-rich-quick trade. Here’s why the stock could take time to deliver the returns investors hope for.
The AI space race will take years
As much as investors associate SpaceX with rockets, the company believes the bulk of its value will come from its growth opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI). AI accounted for all but $2 trillion of the $28.5 trillion addressable market outlined in SpaceX’s S-1 filing. SpaceX merged with xAI in February 2026 and plans to build out AI infrastructure in space, including satellites and data centers.
But that will take time. According to a Reuters report, SpaceX could begin launching orbital AI infrastructure test demonstrations by the end of next year. Aside from CEO Elon Musk’s long track record of pushing back ambitious timelines, it will likely take years to launch, build, and monetize enough infrastructure to move the needle for SpaceX’s financials.
That’s not to say it won’t happen. But it’s important that investors set the proper expectations. SpaceX is a tantalizing growth story over the next five, 10, even 20 years, not the next 12 months.
SpaceX’s current valuation will likely drag on the stock
In that light, SpaceX’s valuation becomes a major factor in the stock’s near-term performance. As you’ve probably heard, SpaceX was the largest and arguably most anticipated IPO in history. That means that SpaceX stock went public at a price that reflects all that excitement.
The stock currently has a market cap of $2.1 trillion. It’s already one of the world’s most valuable companies.
SpaceX’s total revenue was $18.6 billion in 2025. That’s a price-to-sales ratio of 112. In other words, you’re getting less than a penny of SpaceX’s revenue for each dollar you invest. It’s extremely difficult for stocks to sustain such high valuations, and history offers many examples of stocks that burst onto the scene and then struggled once the business inevitably failed to meet the unrealistically high expectations that come with those valuations.
Unfortunately, it could take years for SpaceX’s early buyers to get the returns they hope for. I don’t mean that as a knock on a genuinely remarkable company. The reality is that the price you pay always matters.
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Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
